Attack on Moscow Concert Hall

Initial thoughts

There we go again: a mass casualty event, less than a week after the re-election of Russian president Vladimir Putin. Official numbers talk about 40-60 dead , and hundreds wounded, warning the number might be much higher, as 5 to 6 gunmen stormed the Crocus City Hall concert building. A sold-out performance by Piknik (wiki: “Russian rock band known for its unique style which is a mixture of art rock, progressive rock and original Russian rock”) was about to take place in the concert hall, which has a capacity of 7300.

ISIS (yes, those guys) came out of the woodwork to claim responsibility for this attack, in a short message published this Friday on Telegram by ISIS-affiliated news agency Amaq (as reported by CNN). No further evidence was posted, and no other confirmation of this claim could be made.

On Telegram, DD Geopolitics claims that any ‘rumor’ about ISIS claiming responsibility is false: “Rumors of ISIS claiming responsibility for the Moscow attack are FALSE.

This image which appears to be a statement taking credit for the mass shooting at a concert hall uses a template that ISIS has not used in many years.”

CBS  thinks differently, and claims: "A U.S. official tells CBS News the U.S. has intelligence confirming the Islamic State's claims of responsibility, and that they have no reason to doubt those claims. The U.S. official also confirmed that the U.S. provided intelligence to Russia about a potential attack under the intelligence community's Duty to Warn requirement."

National Security Council spokesman John Kirby was very quick to deny any link to Ukraine: "There is no indication at this time that Ukraine, or Ukrainians, were involved in the shooting," Kirby told reporters. "I would disabuse you at this early hour of any connection to Ukraine."

It is true that the US Embassy of Moscow posted a warning on March 7, but it was weirdly specific by mentioning ‘to include concerts’:

A lot of messaging are flying around, from the usual knee-jerk anti-terrorist and/or anti-Muslim jabs, to ‘Putin will unleash hell’, but also a whole lot of skepticism. As I already showed earlier, even the message by ISIS is looked at critically, and found to be iffy, using an old template that hasn’t been seen in years.

Ukrainian sources are certain: this was a planned crime perpetrated by none other than Putin himself!

This is ridiculous, as should be immediately clear: Putin just won an election with 88% of the vote, his actions have broad support, and he is calmly and surely winning the war on the ground. There is absolutely no need for him to make such a high risk move that involves killing his own citizens by the hundreds. Such desperate moves are usually only made as a distraction when things are going bad.

Another interesting image that is going around, is a list of 5 suspects, purportedly spread by Russian government officials:

It shows individuals from Ingushetia, a small Russian region, between North Ossetia and Chechnya, in the North Caucasus. For almost 10 years now Russians have battled with insurgents there, and appear to be a possible candidate from where the shooters were recruited. However, this is disinformation, plain and simple, as at least 2 of the people were killed earlier this month in a shootout with Russian special forces.

This engagement was confirmed by Reuters, among others. If look at this article from March 2, 2024, we see 2 people confirmed dead, and identified as Amirkhan Gurazhev and Adam Ozdoev. They were part of an ‘ISIS gang’, that had been busted by that Russian raid, and had been on the run for over a year after killing 3 employees of the Russian Interior Ministry. The same 2 in a March 4, 2024 article, plus a third person on this list of suspects who was identified on that same raid as Zelimkhan Magomedovich Tsuroev (wanted for public calls for terrorist activities).

Other observers pointed out that “This is fake, officials from the Investigative Committee, FSB, and the Ministry of Internal Affairs have not yet sent information about the suspects.”

A very interesting angle to cast doubt on this narrative of ISIS, was the following tweet:

A good number of posts still point directly at an op by CIA/MOSSAD. The claim is that ISIS was a US creation (by Obama and Clinton), as the previous tweet pointed out attacked and decimated/destroyed under Trump, but back in action not that long thereafter (amazingly with the August 26, 2021 bomb attack during the US retreat from Afghanistan, under president Biden, claiming the lives of 13 American soldiers and  about 170 civilians. Coincidentally, it was the same subgroup, ISIS-K (Islamic State – Khorasan Province) that was behind that Kabul attack, and now also the Crocus Theater attack.

OSINTdefender wrote on X: “Russian Concertgoers who were Inside of the Crocus Concert Hall in Moscow when the Terrorist Attack occurred have stated that the Fire stated when the Gunmen began to throw Molotov Cocktails at the Walls and Ceilings, with it then stating when they tried to Evacuate several of the Emergency Fire Exits were Blocked or Locked from the Outside.” This is important, if true, because it would point at additional people involved, who locked/blocked those entrances from the outside, as the gunmen stormed in from the entrance.

This branch has since the Kabul attack ‘capitalized on the Russia-Ukraine war’, according to Foreign Policy:  

They reported that the central Media newsletter, Al Naba, published an article titled “Crusader against Crusader Wars”, shortly after the war began in February 2022. “This bloody war taking place today, between the Orthodox crusaders—Russia and Ukraine—is an example of the punishment that was unleashed upon them and is forever glued to them.” The conflict, the article argues, is about power and “a manifestation of the escalating competition between America and Russia for control of the Eastern European countries.” After that, the central ISIS newsletter remained silent, but the Afghani branch took over and focused a lot of attention and effort on that war.

This is where things get really interesting:

Dramatic, and very outspoken: SHOCKING PROOF!

Even members of the European Parliament inquired about this, pointing out how “On 7 July, the New York Times reported the presence of a Chechen volunteer force made up of ISIS sympathisers in territories disputed by Russian separatists and Ukrainian troops.

It appears that they have openly sided with Ukraine in a bid to weaken Russia and compel it to concentrate its forces on that country, drawing resources away from other fronts on which it is pitted against various Islamic terrorist groups.

To date, the Ukrainian authorities have made no attempt to deny the reports and have neither disowned these fundamentalist ISIS combatants nor sought to remove them from territory Ukraine has been claiming is its own.“ but got a typical non-answer.

Within a week, a Ukrainian news organization found the commander in question, and interviewed him: “Polygraph.info found and interviewed the Ukrainian commander from the AP photographs. Kurt explained that he has nothing to do with ISIS, but collects patches and wears them as trophies. The ISIS patch is a trophy he took from the body of a mercenary from Russia’s Wagner private military company, the commander said.”

Which effectively undermines that whole ‘proof’ of ISIS in Ukraine. Many in Western Media stopped there, and sighed with relief: see, there is no ISIS there! Just as there are no Nazis!

Still, a number of publications report on the presence of ISIS fighters in Ukraine, such as this https://thecradle.co/articles-id/4420  and this https://www.journalismfund.eu/supported-projects/ukraine-safe-haven-jihadists .

They quote the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service, SVR, saying “At the end of 2021, the US released from prison … several dozen Daesh terrorists, including citizens of Russia and CIS countries. These individuals were sent to the US-controlled Al-Tanf base, where they underwent special training in subversive and terrorist warfare methods with a focus on the Donbass region.”

A counter-article claims that it was Russia who was using ISIS members, but it makes clear that this concerned a very limited number of captured ISIS soldiers in Russian prisons who were recruited by the FSB to infiltrate Chechen and Tatar units fighting for Ukraine, and given substantial time off their sentences in return for work for the FSB.
“He was told that he needs to infiltrate the Chechen and Tatar battalions fighting on the side of Ukraine. Kultanov was first sent to Turkey last spring. There he was ordered to gather information about fighters who were ready to go to Ukraine.”

How did Turkey become a springboard to bring in such units to Ukraine? Who were those fighters? Are they linked with the Al-Tanf trained ISIS fighters? Not a stretch, as last year International Crisis Group warned in an article titled “An Enduring Challenge: ISIS-linked Foreigners in Türkiye”: “Thousands of foreign nationals who joined ISIS in Syria and Iraq have crossed into Türkiye. Some have been deported. Others have stayed, with some still facing trial for terrorism-related charges and others nearing the end of their prison sentences.”

Memri uncovers an article by ISIS-K that shows the real truth: ISIS does now want to have Muslims fight for either the Russians NOR the Ukrainians. "This is certainly the case of those Muslims who joined the ranks of the Russian and Ukrainian kuffar [unbeliever] armies, which keep fighting each other over minor worldly issues of pride, territory, and resources, and while joining such ranks of the infidels, they did not pay attention to the nullifier of Islam that they have committed for fighting for sake of Taghut [tyrants]."

The fact that they wrote that article, shows that a significant enough portion of Muslims was fighting in Ukraine. We know about the Chechen units of Kadyrov fighting for Putin, but this also talks explicitly about Muslim battalions fighting for Ukraine.

"Equally misguided are the Chechens who are fighting the Russian kuffar at the service of the Ukrainian ones. If they really want to give Putin the retribution he deserves, they have only one way to go, and this leads to the 'Caucasus Wilayah' of the Islamic State. This applies also to the Tatar Muslims, who seem to never learn from their historical mistakes." Give Putin the retribution he deserves. Not by fighting on the battlefield in Ukraine, under unbelievers as commanders, but for the cause of the Islamic State. Their tactics? Terror. Such as in Crocus City Hall. As Memri ended their review of that ISIS-K article: “The article called on Muslims to come back to their senses and join ISIS to wage jihad in the Caucasus Wilayah. "And you will not regret it," the article concluded.”

So how to connect to CIA? Or the Mossad?

It is a public secret how the US and Israel have funded and favored ISIS. As can be expected, without much, if any, hard proof. Articles such as this by the Center for Geopolitics and Security in Realism Studies, asked “Why is Israel not intervening to counter the Islamic State?” Sketching the situations, they write: “Retracing the political and military developments that have occurred since the establishment of the self-declared caliphate, the absence of Israel from any official operation against ISIS stands out, raising the issue of why the Jewish state, the strongest military power in the region and the US’ historical ally, continues to be absent from the US-led anti-ISIS coalition and avoids direct intervention. This absence is even more perplexing when one considers the current presence of ISIS militants near Israel’s borders.” Citing several reasons, such as international obstacles to participate in the US-led international coalition and the Israeli non-interventionist policy, they also give the main reason: “The Caliphate does not (yet) represent a threat to Israel’s national security.”

On January 7, 2024, ‘posters By Pro-Islamic State (ISIS) Media Groups Condemn Hamas For Its Alliance With Shi'ite Iran, Fighting For National Reasons Rather Than Religious’, as reported by several outlets, including MEMRI. Convenient, of course, for Israel.

In another instance, reported by Israeli and other international news media, “Isis-affiliated fighters “apologised” after launching an attack on Israeli soldiers, the country’s former defence minister has claimed. Moshe Ya’alon was reportedly referring to an incident when a group linked to Isis in the Syrian Golan Heights exchanged fire with Israeli forces last November.”

Are their indications of US and Isreali influence and involvement with ISIS? It absolutely seems so.

A video is circulating, showing a man in captivity, and it is claimed that this shows an Israeli Mossad officer, Benjamin Ibrahim. A few problems: the name of the country is mistranslated: the subtitles of the Arabic spoken words show the answer to the question of which country he is from as ‘Israel’, when he says ‘Syria’. And as another observer pointed out: he has to look down to get his alias right: a real spy would now such a vital part of information dead cold by heart.

Is there any truth to the claims that the US and/or Israel is involved in this attack in Moscow?

No, except through the dubious claim that ISIS is behind it, and then, by association, the US/Israel.

Is it unthinkable? No. It undermines Putin, shows he cannot protect his citizens, that he is so focused on Ukraine that he is forgetting everything else.

Some claim that this is revenge by Israel on Russia for vetoing the US-proposed ceasefire in Gaza, just prior to the attack. China also vetoed, both countries claiming that it was giving Israel free reign to execute a planned offensive in Rafah.

This is linked to a video clip showing Amir Weitmann, one of the leaders of the ruling Likud party, in a passionate and at times unhinged interview with Russian newschannel RT. He attacked Russia because ‘it is supporting the enemies of Israel, nazi people who want to commit genocide on us’, and threatens ‘Russia will pay. Listen to me carefully: we will end these Nazis, we will win this war, after this we will not forget what you do. We will come and we will make sure that Ukraine wins. We will make sure that you pay for what you did.’

Is that video proof of Israeli involvement?

Absolutely not.

Is Obama’s photo op visit to UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, at Downing Street 10, proof of any involvement in the attack in Moscow 4 days later by ‘ISIS’, made great by/under Obama? (Stories about providing air cover, and arming them, are found all over the internet).

Absolutely not.

If anything, why would Obama make such a public spectacle of that visit, if he was there to discuss something so explosive? Then again, not impossible, either. They did threaten about Nordstream in very plain language, too.

Some pro-Russian sources mention that the FSB released some news, how the gunmen had prepared their weapons in a cache, and had plans to cross the border into Ukraine, where they had relevant contacts. Which still does not mean anything, yet, and does not implicate Zelensky & Co, just yet.

The dead toll right now is 93 people, according to the same source, mentioning communiques by the FSB, and 11 people have been detained, including ‘all 4 terrorists directly involved in the terrorist attack at Crocus’.

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I normally don’t jump on developing stories, as I think the 48 hr rule (preferably the 72 hr rule) is very valuable. Yet this story piqued my interest, if anything for the lighting fast and pervasive counter-narrative that is offered, with a predictable mix of ostensibly false claims, but also other ‘coincidences’ that are harder to ignore, apart from the equally predictable outpouring of ‘there, the Muslims are at it again!’
That would be too convenient, and too immediate, ignoring the wider context, as I tried to sketch in this article. At the same time, this shows the power of social media, with an unchained Twitter, allowing for narratives and counter-narratives to have their play. No oppression, no action to ‘stop disinformation’. Does it muddy the waters? Sure. But it forces us to be critical, and to verify the claims we see. We have unlearned this vital skill, and desperately need to reacquire it. ‘Trust but verify’, at the least, if not ‘distrust, and verify’, as a standard rule when reading the latest news.

One conservative commentator wrote: “There are three possibilities here:

1- US/NATO/Ukraine were behind the attack, in an attempt to force Putin to escalate, and drag NATO into full-scale WW3.

2- Russia were behind the attack to justify significant escalation.

3- Unknown entity carried out for unknown reasons.

Option 1 seems like the most plausible, because the West are the only ones who could possibly benefit from this situation. Putin already has all the support he needs to do whatever the hell he wants, he does not need to kill his own civilians to justify a war he is already in, fresh off an election where he got 88% of the vote.

Deep State actors are the ones who are desperate to start a global war. It solves all of their problems. They can cancel the US election, further extend their power, and the war machine keeps getting paid.

Would they start WW3 to stop Trump? Absolutely.”

Here is the problem with that, as I see it: how would an attack by ISIS escalate the war in Ukraine? Drag NATO in it? It is a distraction, if anything an attempt to disrupt Russia, and undermine Putin in the aftermath of his re-election. Even if the West is behind it, under the guise of ISIS, the public will still see ISIS, and not the West. Puting might know, but he also knows how the West is behind so much in Ukraine, as well, yet is showing restrained, careful not to get dragged down in WW3…

That same commentator, BioClandestine, followed up with this message: “Imagine how differently this situation would have been covered by the MSM if we did not have X.

Before the MSM even got a chance to establish their narrative, citizen journos had already analyzed the situation and disseminated it around the globe.

The MSM just can’t keep up.”

That seemed spot on. But I would caution: while elements of the truth have certainly been uncovered, a lot of grey remains, a lot of conjecture was made, and a lot of outright falsehoods have been spewed, too. From rants against Muslims, to rants against the Jews, rants against Trump,… everyone got their 2 cents in. Good news: the criticisms and skepticism is visible and accessible, and hopefully people will learn how to navigate that stream of information, before jumping to conclusions.

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Video footage of the aftermath shows standard Russian weapons (AK family rifles) had been used, ruling out a direct link with Western equipped gunmen. A lot of questions remain.

Interestingly, the video shows one of the weapons used by the Terrorists during the terror attack in Moscow.

Weapons and conflict researcher on Telegram, War Noir, points out:

The weapon showed is a rare early variant (Gen 1) modern AK-12 assault rifle, with 5.45x39mm magazines & ammo also being seized.

The weapon was not the first freshness - after shooting it “let loose dragons”.

This is a sign that the bore or receiver itself is destroyed from the inside and produces sparks, that is, the weapon has not been used for a long time and has not been stored properly.

1. Bayonet thread for DTK;

2. Gas regulator on the tube;

3. Rear sight on the receiver cover;

4. Fire translator;

5. Button for folding the shoulder rest (on the other side);

6. shoulder rest;

The shoulder rest, pistol grip, and receiver cover with picatinny rail are also visible.

Interestingly, very few armies in the world use the AR-12, these include:

— 🇷🇺 Russian Federation and the Pro-Russian separatists of the Donbass republics, supplied for them by Russian Government

— 🇰🇿 Kazakhstan (In small quantities)

— 🇧🇾 Belarus (In small quantities)

— 🇶🇦 Emirate of Qatar (Used by the Royal Guard)

— 🇺🇦 Ukraine, with these being captured from Russian troops.

Notably, speaking from a black markets™ enthusiast's point of view, this type of weapon is a very rare specimen to appear in the hands of common smugglers operating in Ukrainian and Russian border regions.

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Larry Johnson, ex-CIA officer pointed out that the biggest problem is that both the US and UK embassies in Moscow issued warnings to go out to concerts, specifically, because of a possible attack, in the next 48 hrs. This only happens if there is highly credible information to that effect. That time frame passed, and then, yesterday, this attack on Crocus happened. Witin an hour and a half the US State Department was adament that ‘Ukraine had nothing to do with this’, at a point in time when NOTHING was known yet. He mentioned that a CIA front group tweeted just the day before or early on the day of the attack that “members of Biden's National Security Council and White House staff have reportedly started to become increasingly frustrated by quote unauthorized Brazen actions end quote taken by Ukraine against Russia.” Brazen action, like shooting up a concert hall full of civilians.
Johnson continued, and explained that Maria Zakharova, the Kremlin spokeswoman, had expressed that they were very troubled by that US embassy warning, and that if there was indeed a terrorist attack, that they would hold the US and the UK responsible. To Johnson, this means very clearly that the US had NOT shared any relevant intell with Russia.

So this begs the question, if Johnson’s reasoned suspicion is true: Did the US know, and agreed, but tried to distance itself? Did they know, did not agree, but could not stop it? Did they not know the details, but got wind of something a dissident or rogue group was planning? If indeed all 4 gunmen and various support people around them are arrested alive, I’m curious to hear what information they will divulge. We might see a different attack pattern in the coming weeks: if true, Russia might indeed hunt down and target US targets within Ukraine, like CIA and covert US military officials, as Johnson suggested as a possible action by Russia.

Still, many questions, a lot of assumptions, some more reasonable than others, but still without any clarity and certainty.

For now: sit tight, don’t let crazy tweets rile you up too much, resist the urge to fit this event too hastily within a preconceived framework, and await further confirmation and news, to see what really is going on.

And pray for the victims and their families.