I am looking into the reported missile attack on the small Polish town of Przewodow, very close to the Ukrainian border.
Voices are calling for an invocation of Article 5 of the Nato Charter, that calls for allies to actively defend any other member state that is attacked, in this case, Poland, against Russia.
The Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki urgently called a meeting of his country’s National Security Council, and the Polish President Andrzej Duda is holding a telephone conversation with Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Jakub Kumoch, as reported by a spokesman of the president. NATO is planning a meeting of the NATO Council tomorrow, November 16, to talk about the missile attack in Poland.
This can very easily escalate, and that would mean open war between NATO and Russia. In such scenario, the threat of nuclear weapons cannot be excluded, at all. The US has signaled a plan to pre-emptively strike at Russian nuclear capabilities, or the country as a whole, to prevent it from launching its own nuclear weapons.
But none of this makes any sense.
Why would Russia knowingly attack Poland, a NATO member? Why draw in the whole of NATO, openly, and expose Russia itself to full attack by the Alliance? If we believe the Western narrative that Russia is losing the war, with the withdrawal from Kherson and so on, why and how would expanding the war to allow NATO to fully participate be of any help? It doesn’t!
And if you believe the opposite, that Russia is winning, why would they endanger that certain victory, after having been so patient in chipping away at Ukrainian military power, by giving NATO their casus belli? Makes no sense, whatsoever.
Who benefits, then? Cui bono?
Ukraine, of course. Full NATO involvement would be a dream for the Zelensky regime, assuring it of continued and exponentially increased aid and support, down to actual already trained NATO troops and equipment! Germany did not want to give her Leopard tanks, but now they will HAVE to send them, with her own soldiers manning them!
Perhaps that was not the goal, either. A more simple explanation was that of Ukraine using this to bolster demands to increase air defense in Ukraine, to give them more and more modern systems. Already, Ukraine is begging for more of such systems to be delivered, and the Latvian defense minister is similarly making such open calls to supply not just Ukraine, but also Poland, more modern air defense systems.
But what really happened? Can we just assume that it was Russia? Or can we just assume, out of a distrust of the Western propaganda machine, that it must have been Ukraine itself, in some kind of false flag?
Let us look closer.
First, I note that last night/morning, the Western part of Ukraine was under air attack, as evidence by this map by Al-Jazeera. It shows the Lviv region, fully bordering the Polish border, as under attack.
Next, I note that the Ukrainian 540th Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiment, based out of Kamianka-Buzka, a little north-East of Lviv, is armed with the S-300PS air defense system.
Early pictures of missile fragments found in Poland, show that they indeed belong to a S300 missile.
Fragments from Poland, per various online sources:
Image of a S300 missile that did NOT explode, elsewhere in Ukraine, at an earlier date, for comparison:
See also this tweet:
And also BBC reports on this, stating that experts they contacted believe it concerns S300 missiles.
American official sources are hesitant to add oil to this fire, and admit that they cannot confirm Russian involvement in this attack. You better believe the media would be all over the place if any hard evidence did exist with Putin’s fingerprints on it.
But I think there is another way to look at this. Granted, preliminary, and by itself not conclusive, but definitely worth considering as well.
Look at the following picture from the Polish town (notice also that two explosions were reported, but only pictures of this single crater and explosion site were released). We see a tractor with a trailer, and the trailer blown over to its side. Notice the trees and shrubs behind the vehicle, and the lights in the window in the background.
Next, look at this video, filmed immediately after the explosion (notice that only ONE cloud is seen rising, not two, even though two missiles are reported, and two explosions were reportedly heard).
Now, look at the location: the buildings indicated by the white arrows (one close to the point of view, with a low, white roof), and the forking road, by the red arrow.
Next, look at this satellite view from Google Earth of Przewodów. The farm at the bottom has silo’s characteristic for grain storage, and fits the report of a grain drying facility being hit. Now look at the white arrows, pointing at the two buildings from the video, and the forked road in red. The yellow triangle shows the point of view of the video, and the estimated line of sight towards the column of smoke.
Right where the yellow circle is, you have the trees on the side of the farm, a house in the background, and this is, I would suggest, the location of the vehicle and the missile impact.
But that means that the missile came from the south or west, NOT from the east, as the center of the crater in the above picture is too close to where the side of the trailer would have been if you flip it back upright. In the south, perhaps Belarus could have fired it, but why?
In the West, it came from Poland: no indication that they would have fired such S300 on their own village, even if some say Poland is itching to get in on the action.
But in the South, you have the large city of Lviv, and the 540th air defense unit.
(Such missiles are guided, and can turn, so that too needs to be taken into account, but if the missile was indeed Russian, why would they go through such charade to mask the path of their attack like that?)
It is very likely that a stray missile, fully within the 150-200 km range of the S300, missed a Russian target, and fell down just past the border. This is not the first time, as some other accusations of Russians targeting apartment buildings have been confirmed to have been caused by Ukrainian surface to air missiles that missed, and came back down, inflicting the damage that was portrayed as a deliberate Russian targeting of civilian housing.
All this being said, I have no firm proof, so far removed from the actual scene of the explosion, and with no insider contacts. The only evidence I have are sporadic pictures and some grainy video, but they do point at a reality much different than what so many media are claiming as truth: Russia did NOT attack Poland!
At this point, there is ZERO evidence of such, let alone of an intentional targeting of Polish citizens. It could be an accident. It could even be a Russian missile that was knocked off course by Ukrainian counter fire (even though the initial pictures of missile fragments very strongly point towards a S300 missile, with a much shorter range to have come from Russia).
What we WILL hear, soon, is talk about how a 'Russian built' missile hit innocent Polish citizens.
Which is true, but deceptive.
Russian built, but Ukrainian fired. Want to bet how quick that language will appear in Western media?
All those warmongers and hotheads need to sit back down. There is NO reason for any such heated rhetoric, NO reason to blame Russia with such strong, unequivocal claims. The stakes are WAY TOO HIGH to make mistakes: if proven, this could be a casus belli. There is NO room for error.
And I have pointed at way too many areas of uncertainty, at way too many other, much more plausible scenarios.
Stand down, calm down, and investigate properly. Without the wild accusations.
___________________
Addendum:
Look at this tweet:
The capabilities of the RAT-31DL are described by the company producing them “as an early warning surveillance system that can detect air and missile threats, including ballistic missiles.”
Compare to this statement, as reported by CNN:
”Polish President Andrzej Duda said in a Tuesday address that Poland does not know who fired the missile, while noting that the missile was “most likely produced in Russia.””
And add this: the US and NATO have many surveillance aircraft in the air, covering the whole of Ukraine and adjacent Russian airspace, to detect not just troop movement and radio signals, but any and all air traffic, planes, helicopters and missiles. Don’t tell me they had the day off today?
Three points:
ONE: If Poland indeed has such capability that close to Przewodów, and the US and NATO have indeed all that surveillance aircraft keeping close taps on Ukrainian airspace, don’t tell me that they don’t know who fired the missile.
THEY DO KNOW, EXACTLY, where that missile was fired from.
TWO: Notice how President Duda speaks about ‘missile’, singular.
THREE: Notice how quick indeed the language of ‘Russian Made’ is being used. By lack of direct evidence, let’s use inference, to implicate the Russians at any cost!
Consider this case closed, as far as I am concerned.
You took the words right out of my mouth with regard to the warmongers needing to shut up. They constantly try to inflame a situation and are shameless in their lust for blood.
My first gut reaction was Zelensky with the help of the US. Turns out it was Ukraine, accident or purpose can be debated. Purpose to distract from the FTX scandel that is about to blown up in the dems faces would be my thought.