Trump assassination attempt: separating fact from fiction

Where truth is stranger than fiction...

Let’s look at what really happened.

My students know that I love teaching history by map. Maps provide so much information, even before you know anything specific about a country, city, battle, etc. When talking about the events, we need to see, mentally, the place where the event we are talking about took place, and its relation to other relevant places.

Trump’s rally was organized on the grounds of Butler Farm Show Inc., in Butler, Pennsylvania, about 40 to 50 minutes due north of Pittsburgh, depending on taking Route 79/279 or State Highway 8.

The general surroundings of the place look as follows:

The long fields, just above Main Street, is where the rally took place.

Here, we see all the main elements. The podium where Trump gave his speech, the cranes with the flag, the bleachers behind Trump, the rooftop where the Secret Service Sniper team was, and roof where the assassin took his shot from.

The following picture by the New York Times shows those main elements everyone talks about, adding the location of the second sniper team, from local police tactical teams.

A lot of speculation can be found online about the actions of the sniper team (specifically the Secret Service Sniper Team, as if there was only 1 such team present), but most speculate. Once you understand the lay of the land, a lot becomes very clear. And new, very damning questions arise.

By overlaying pictures and matching them with the features on a Maxar satellite picture (obtained from Reuters dated June 2, 2023), I was able to recreate a rather exact representation of each location.

Let’s look at the story this will tell us already:

Figuring out the position of the assassin, shows something very remarkable: both sniper teams could not see the assassin, because a tree was in the way. (Look back up, two pictures, the one with the cranes and the bleachers: see the tree, and how it is widest roughly at the height where the shooter would have been?) The shooter, however, had an unrestricted view on the podium, wherever on the roof he would have positioned himself (see dotted red line from edge roof). This explains the fact that neither sniper team did anything. They couldn’t do anything, as they didn’t see anything.

One of the videos of the rally goers that showed the shooter on the roof gives another important clue: about 19 seconds in, you hear a man yell “He’s turning this way!” followed almost immediately with a final ‘pop’, with a different sound than the previous pops. As the assassin crawled to his right, likely to get a better view of Trump, a new angle away from the Secret Service agents covering him, away from the boom of the first forklift with the speaker array, the counter-sniper team finally got a bead on him, and immediately took the shot. Incredible shooting!

That the assassin moved to his right, is human instinct: when you see your target disappear towards your left, behind an obstacle, our instinct tells us to move right to clear that obstacle and regain our line of sight... If he had turned to the left, he could have regained line of sight, as well, while staying out of view of the sniper teams! The obstacle could also be the large black box (?) visible to the left of the podium, between the ‘loop’ of the red walkway towards the podium:

Looking at the above reconstruction, you can see that the other forklift that got hit in the hydraulics, lowering its speaker array as a result while spraying fluid from a pinpoint hole, was almost directly behind the podium, in a straight line with the shooter, further validating my reconstruction above.

It also shows how Trump, by turning towards the main billboard with the immigration graph behind the left bleacher (left, when looking from the audience), had his head indeed fully parallel to the view line of the assassin, allowing the bullet to simply graze his head, hitting only his ear, and nothing else.

Understanding that angle, helps understand that the shooter had an almost perfect shot lined up, hitting trump roughly halfway between center of his turned head and the edge of his head, together with his shoulders moving sligtly forward to look behind him, to the right. But just that small turn was enough to turn that assured hit into a near miss, hitting only the ear lobe. How could he have missed? It was a much better shot than we realize!

So this is the timeline: the shooter crawled in position, invisible to both sniper teams. He had a clear line of sight, and took a shot, hit Trump’s ear, followed by 2 fast shots, less carefully aimed (surprised that he missed that first shot?), that then missed. Trump ducked (he likely heard the bullets whistle by, snapping him to move and take cover), and as the Secret Service agents dove onto the President, protecting him with their bodies, the assassin fired a quick volley of about 5 shots, almost as if in a panic, which could not have been properly aimed. Then after a few seconds, a last, single shot rings out, from a different rifle.

The second volley of shots is likely the volley that killed the bystanders: aimed lower, trying to adjust for the lower position of Trump who had ducked, as the Secret was covering him. Now, however, the raised part of the first bleacher to the left was in the way, and the people on top of it… Trying to adjust his position to get a better view, the assassin, unaware of this fact, left his protected area of ‘invisibility’, was spotted by sniper team 2, and instantly taken out.

This solves a whole lot of questions about the sniper teams themselves, and their perceived inaction. They did not shoot, as they had no clear target: the tree was in the way! Only at the last moment, when the assassin moved, could a shot be taken.

This move likely explains why the gun and the body were several feet apart, after the assassin was killed:

This leaves new questions: what communication was there between the sniper teams and other Law Enforcement on the ground, and vice versa? Apparently, the sniper teams were aware of the presence of a suspect, likely knew he was armed, but, as I showed above, could not see him because of the tree. Why was there no other sniper team to cover the angles both sniper teams behind Trump could not see? Why were both sniper teams positioned at the same side of their protectee, thereby leaving a whole lot of angles and areas uncovered?

A lot of the other questions remain unanswered. How did the assassin get there? Why was there so little Secret Service protection? Why were at least some of the Secret Service agents present looking so hopelessly under-qualified and inexperienced? Etc.

To answer some of the questions I saw online: the main sniper team, with ‘police’ visible on the back, is indeed part of Secret Service. Blowing up that image shows that there is small print below the words ‘police’, stating ‘Secret Service’.

And the idea that there was a second bullet hitting the chest, that was stopped by Trump’s vest, is also false. A closer look reveals that what looked like a hole is only the shadow created by a fold in the suit of the agent in front of Trump.

Now, onto some other, and serious, problems:

We have seen the images of the Secret Service agent who was woefully too short to adequately protect Donald Trump, with his towering 6 feet 3 inches. Thanks to this oversight, however, we now have that absolutely iconic picture, with Trump completely overshadowing the short agent, when they all got up again, pump his fist in the air to signal the crowd that he was alive, and in good spirit. “Fight! Fight! Fight!”

Or the other agent, fumbling with her handgun, unable to holster it. Now, the stress and panic of the moment can overtake anyone, but the better trained, the more experienced, the less you should see such fumbling on what should be a very well-trained move, down to muscle memory. Or worse, hiding while others jump on Donald Trump to protect him with their bodies. Was she really qualified for this personal protective detail? Fully trained, and aware of what her first responsibility was?

Some commentators are merciless:

But, as any good meme, it has a kernel of truth.

Kimberly Cheatle, the Secret Service Director, had made it her goal to transform the Secret Service following the DEI tenets. Project 30x30, where she wants 30% female Agents by 2030.

When someone posted a bio of Cheatle, detailing her previous tenure as Senior Director in Global Security at PepsiCo, responsible for security protocols in PepsiCo’s facilities in North America, Elon Musk came out with a zinger:

It forgets that Cheatle had a career of about 23 years at the Secret Service prior to her work with PepsiCo, the last 2 of which as Assistant Deputy Director. Dan Bongino points out that her tenure was anything but perfect, and that she has no place at the Secret Service. She was appointed as Director in 2022 by Biden, and the next year 45% of the agents resigned. Officially because of a workload that was too high. That they had an instance where an agent started to flip out and become violent during an assignment, had to be forced to the ground, held down, and disarmed, is of course irrelevant. As is the fact that the agent in question was a female with a background that made everyone question how she got accepted into the Secret Service. The answer, of course, is simple: DEI.

The physical readiness requirements for men and women within the Secret Service are also very different, where the female ‘very good’ category would be ‘very poor’ for the men. As if the need to protect someone changes simply based on the gender of the agents present. Raging insanity, but here we are. The Secret Service spokesperson denied, just as vehemently, that the new direction has undermined the agency’s readiness. Of course.

Another problem is the reason for the replacement of the Secret Service agents with inexperienced agents.

But also this: not just Jill Biden, but also Kamala Harris, who visited Philadelphia that very same day!

For the Secret Service Bureau of Pittsburgh to divert resources away from Trump, towards Jill Biden, would mean that there was a threat assessment to justify that. Who wrote that assessment, who signed of on that? The result is clear: a very drained and anemic shell of protection left for Trump, creating a perfect storm.

Susan Crabtree’s later full claims were these, from her X account:

🚨New info from a source in the Secret Service community — Trump’s usual protective Secret Service detail was worked so hard (working 7 days a week with no days off) that many of agents assigned Saturday were temporary replacements from different field offices.

This is not the usual protocol for sitting presidents and vice presidents but “typical” for former presidents, (although no former presidents have run again in modern history.)

“Trump has a permanent detail, however it’s much smaller in the amount of bodies,” the source said. “His detail has been worked so hard with all the travel that they’re working 7 days a week with shift changes. so HQ sends in temp agents to supplement - not a good scenario. Mission Failure, IMHO.”

🚨 (cont.) I’m told the only permanent agent from trump’s detail during the rally was SAIC (Special Agent In Charge) Kern, two sources within the Secret Service community told me. All others were temps. Pittsburgh USSS Field Office had a Jill Biden visit and designated a lot of resources to her, the source said. Also - the advance work only occurred one-day beforehand bc of a lack of resources.

Where were the resources?

The Pittsburgh USSS Field Office had a Jill Biden visit and designated a lot of resources to her.

“That is f—-ing unbelievable to me,” the source remarked.

Another Secret Service source says approval for the Counter Sniper Team was only granted the day before the rally - and that is not enough time for a two-man team to do their survey.

(Cont) …”That’s nowhere near enough time - a site like that should have had at least three Secret Service counter-sniper teams at the very least.”

I’ll make this correction - It’s SAIC Curran, not Kern. I misheard his name.

This is despite a lot of claims that Trump’s team repeatedly had asked for extra protection, but got denied each time.

The same is true for Robert Kennedy Jr., who only yesterday (Monday 15^th) got approval, when Biden accepted Trump’s request. The Secret Service spokesman vehemently denied that such requests were made.

What IS true, is that a core group of 9 democrats tried to take away ALL Secret Service protection from Trump, earlier this year. Called, of course, “The DISGRACED Former Protectees Act - or the Denying Infinite Security and Government Resources Allocated toward Convicted and Extremely Dishonorable Former Protectees Act.” Caps in the original...

Another weird element is this:

Why would they get such a tip to broadcast Trump live, for a rather small event such as Butler, PA? When the RNC Convention would start just 2 days later? All coincidences, of course.

The assassin himself poses a series of problems, too.
First, the simple question: how could he be spotted so early on, without any reaction from Law Enforcement? He was seen even earlier than first reported!

Dan Bongino, himself a former Secret Service agent, said in his podcast on Monday that police had spotted Thomas Matthew Crooks, the assassin, followed him, but ‘lost track of him’. It is not clear if he already had his rifle, what made the police decide to follow him, how they managed to lose track of him, and how on earth they allowed Trump to proceed as if nothing was wrong.

The Post Millennial reported a similar story: “Law enforcement sources told the outlet that leading up to the assassination attempt on Trump, Crooks was spotted almost 30 minutes before the incident took place. The shooting took place at 6:11 pm and a member of Beaver County’s ESU team had noticed a suspicious man on a nearby roof at around 5:45 pm. He had called it in and took a picture of Crooks.”

When a local police officer did climb up on the roof, he simply retreated when threatened, without any other follow-up or attempt to distract or shoot the assassin. A serious misjudgement and dereliction of duty!

The assassin himself is also interesting.

He appeared in an advertisement for BlackRock of all places...

The gun he used, a 5.56 AR-style rifle, was purchased by his father, a licensed behavioral therapist. The health records for the assassin were immediately pulled, to protect them from being leaked. This raises the question: was the assassin legally able to obtain a rifle himself, or did his father illegally buy that rifle in his stead, knowing he could not pass the required background check? Another question.

It is this whole series of problems, with inadequate protection, coincidental visits by both Jill Biden and Kamala Harris to Pennsylvania, even further eroding Trump’s protective detail, replacing them with staff that is not sufficiently experienced and/or trained, lax behavior on the ground, no communication, spotting and then losing track of the shooter, without warning Trump’s detail so they could remove Trump and keep him safe, as would be protocol when an armed suspect is on the lose and ‘lost track of’, etc., that seems just too much for many observers.

Another commentator had this to say:

Are they right?

I don’t know. There is no proof, at this point. None to prove it, but none to refute the suspicion, either. Too many irregularities are present, and the director of the Secret Service, Kimberly Cheatle, refused to come to the voluntary congressional hearing she was asked to come to. Doesn’t look good. The Secret Service aims at a ‘Zero Fail’ benchmark. Which is to be expected: 1 mistake might mean the President of the United States gets killed! So no mistakes. Yet that day one mistake after mistake after another mistake was made, some absolutely egregious. Unbelievable. It is getting really hard to believe it was just incompetence. Not from the Secret Service, the guys who protect our most important leaders. Then again, some talk about weaponized incompetence. Perhaps they are right, which is a conspiracy of a whole other kind.

A big part is the shooter: did they ‘train’ or ‘guide’ or ‘coax’ him, as with the Withmer case? Or as with Sami Osmakac? No evidence, of course. But he did have a home-made bomb, and a remote trigger. Where did he get the material and know-how to build all that? He could well just be a loner, who snapped. A registered Republican, but that means nothing: too many times have Democrats switched registration in states with closed primaries to influences the primaries. AP reported this: “That was probably the case in Pennsylvania, where some Democrats openly encouraged their base to vote for the Republican candidate for governor, Doug Mastriano, whose extreme views they felt made him more beatable in November.”

The assassin was described as withdrawn, but also as wearing covid masks long after the pandemic had ended: not something a typical conservative would do. A comment on a message board stated: “This dude was suggestable, as evidenced by wearing a mask all the time. A very compliant individual. Who complied with the rhetoric.” And he did make a donation to a very left-leaning group, ActBlue.

One last point: when a crazed gunman shot Gabbie Giffords in the head, Sarah Palin’s crosshair map was blamed, as well as ‘heated Tea Party rhetoric’. Of course, that the gunman had prior history with Giffords and had no relation with the Tea Party or with Palin (likely never saw that map), does not change that perception, nor that talking point.

Now, when the shoe is on the other foot, the media is demanding ‘we all cool down’, refusing to take any responsibility.

Is that what created the assassin who shot at Trump?

No, I don’t think so.

And I am good company. Christopher Rufo replied to a critic who tried to accuse him of an inconsistency in his positions, in regards to this very question of what causes radicalization. (His tweet)

The heated rhetoric Trump and his followers have been subjected to since Trump came down his golden escalator in 2016 has been constant, demonizing them all as existential threats. Often with ‘rhetorical’ calls to violence.

Hearing so many top voices talk about violence, about the need to ‘eliminate’ an ‘existential threat’ to the ‘very fabric of our country’ and even ‘of democracy itself’, paints a picture where violence, even murder, is an acceptable method to answer such serious problem. Even now, the media is rationalizing the violence, blaming Trump for it!

So no, those claims about Trump being literally Hitler by themselves did not cause this attempt at Trump’s life. The constantly repeated and even celebrated idea that violence and murder is justified (to save the nation!), sure did.

A cynical take, but not a wrong one, was this:

It’s time to fix this, ban DEI, and put meritocracy back center-stage.

I am not concerned about unity. Americans are much more united than they realize, and much more than our media, dividers par excellence, give them credit for.

All is well.