TIP0001 - On the Mexican cartels as Terrorist Organisations

New Series Launch

Thoughts In Progress #0001

New series launch

For those who have followed me for a while, you know my modus operandi. I like to write long-form articles, where I research the history of topics, dive deep into the underlying principles, and explore the conclusions that the resulting view suggests or leads towards.

My problem is, however, that events are currently unfolding at such an incredible speed, that I cannot keep up. I have article starters stacked up all over, and not nearly enough time to write them all. Often, things are in progress, and I am waiting or looking for more information so I can offer a more comprehensive view.

So, starting today, I will write a series of often unrelated small(er) snippets of news and some thoughts that might be worthwhile to ponder, not as independent and complete analysis.

Brand new, my TIPs: Thoughts In Progress.

---

On his very first day as President, Trump signed an Executive Order titled: “DESIGNATING CARTELS AND OTHER ORGANIZATIONS AS FOREIGN TERRORIST ORGANIZATIONS AND SPECIALLY DESIGNATED GLOBAL TERRORISTS” This title is rather self-explanatory. It signaled that this administration would go on and make such designation (without officially doing so yet), while explaining the reasons for such a far-reaching move, and that they would make a proper recommendation as to who to include in the list.

From the EO:

(a) International cartels constitute a national-security threat beyond that posed by traditional organized crime, with activities encompassing:

(i) convergence between themselves and a range of extra-hemispheric actors, from designated foreign-terror organizations to antagonistic foreign governments;

(ii) complex adaptive systems, characteristic of entities engaged in insurgency and asymmetric warfare; and

(iii) infiltration into foreign governments across the Western Hemisphere.

This is not a new idea, but something that has been talked about before. In 2023, Senate bill S.698 - Drug Cartel Terrorist Designation Act shall (R-KS), co-sponsored by Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL) to “direct the Secretary of State was proposed by Senator Roger Marto designate certain Mexican drug cartels as foreign terrorist organizations, and to submit a report to Congress justifying such designations in accordance with section 219 of the Immigration and Nationality Act.” It was referred to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, and nothing else happened with it. This happened together with a similar bill introduced in the House of Representatives by Chip Roy (R-TX-21), as H.R.1564 - Drug Cartel Terrorist Designation Act, also to be referred to Committee, where nothing else happened (together with a bill introduced by George Santos [R-NY-3], that was basically the same, but named 5 instead of 4 cartels).

Midway through his first term, president Trump had mulled a similar move, but ultimately decided not to go that far (as reported by Reuters), at the request of the Mexican president Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador.

A notice in the Federal Register shows 8 cartels being named as ‘Foreign Terrorist Organisations’ or FTOs by Secretary of State Marco Rubio (Tren de Aragua, Mara Salvatrucha, Cartel de Sinaloa, Cartel de Jalisco Nueva Generacion, Carteles Unidos, Cartel del Noreste, Cartel del Golfo, and La Nueva Familia Michoacana). It is dated within the document on February 6, 2025, but still has a status of ‘unpublished’. It has a filing date of 2/19/2025 at 8:45am, and a publication date of 02/20/2025.

(There are two versions, 2025-02870, and 2025-02873; the second version is slightly updated, and mentions that “This determination shall be published in the Federal Register. The designations go into effect upon publication.” As such, the US is very close to making such designation, but has NOT yet officially done so, despite claims by some media (here or here).

Who would not like to see US Special Forces swoop in and bring hell to the Cartels? We are much better than they are, right?

Well, yes, but not so fast. The cartels have had specialized training (the Zetas were founded by deserters or veterans of a Mexican elite SpecOps Unit, trained in the 1990s by American military instructors) and the most modern equipment, and are fighting on home turf.

Second, can we guarantee secrecy, and not have moles within the US? Already in 2018 reports were discussed in congressional committees about corruption among the Border Patrol and other higher ranking US officials, paid for by the cartels. As we see with the ICE raids, Tren de Arangua is being tipped off from within the FBI or other sources, clearly coming from high level access to the plans.

Third, the cartels can easily hide between the population: air power won’t work when the cartels use the Hamas playbook, and hide behind civilians. Only troops on the ground would be effective, but at a much higher cost of US military lives (while again not being able to fully exclude collateral damage).

Fourth, what cartels? There are so many splinter groups, making quick targeting not easy.

Fifth: the cartels are entrenched even within major US cities, see map.

What if the cartels start a terror campaign as they do in Mexico, where they kidnap family members of officials and military/police personnel, torture them, behead them, and then hang them from highway overpasses for all to see? Yes, we can stop a lot, but all of it? Do we have the stomach to see this through, once we start?

Now, I am not saying to do nothing, nor to not use the US military.

I am only cautioning. This needs to be done quickly (not giving the cartels time to regroup, formulate strategies, strike back, etc.), and thoroughly (all at once, preferably, for the same reason: don’t give any a chance to learn, or to consolidate as we take out their competition, etc.).

It also cannot be done without full and proper support and authorization from Mexico itself, which needs not just to have US forces help take out the cartels, together with Mexican forces, but also needs to tackle the problem of corruption within their own society, on every level. If the cartels are gone, but the system of corruption remains unaddressed, it is only a matter of time before a worse crime group takes over the vacuum we created.

It needs to address the drugs epidemic in the US, too: there can be no smuggling and such related crimes without a very lucrative market demanding such drugs…

Then there is the problem of other countries involved with the cartels. The link between Venezuela and Tren de Aragua is known, and the links between China and the cartels smuggling China produced fentanyl into the US are also not to be ignored, nor other links between cartels and Middle Eastern terror groups.

Another consideration is the support such cartels give to a whole list of other criminal undertakings: human smuggling and trafficking, forced prostitution, supporting smuggling in known terrorists and weapons, etc.), each justifying the need for action taking out the cartels involved.

I am sure those in command are aware, and Trump’s penchant to listen to the grunts on the ground, not just the top brass in swanky HQ meeting rooms stems hopeful in that regard.

Seeing the steady approvals from Mexico to allow US support against the cartels is similarly a good sign, but there is still a lot of resistance from Mexico towards the US, for a whole host of reasons.

(An interesting read is the following report from the Congressional Research Service, titled “The Alien Enemy Act: History and Potential Use to Remove Members of International Criminal Cartels.”)